Latest inventory level for the Tri-city is below 0.5 month. If you are on the fence to sell your home, there’s no better environment than today’s market to get multiple bids and top dollar.
San Francisco, CA (1,907 single-family permits in 2011, 46th largest market in the country)
Traffic exceeds expectations. Buyer traffic was above agents’ expectations in December, as our traffic index came in at 70 (from 68 in November), above a neutral reading of 50 (readings greater than 50 point to traffic exceeding expectations). 50% of agents said traffic exceeded expectations, 40% said it met expectations, and 10% said it was below expectations.
Prices higher, incentives lower. Home prices were higher in December, as our price index came in at 90 (from 89 in November), above a neutral reading of 50 (readings greater than 50 suggest sequentially higher prices). 84% of agents said prices were higher over the past 30 days, 11% said they were unchanged, and 5% said they were lower. Meanwhile, incentives were lower in December, as our incentive index came in at 66 (from 58 in November), above a neutral reading, pointing to decreased incentives. 56% of agents said incentives were unchanged, 38% said they were lower, and 6% said they were higher.
Less time needed to sell a home in December. Our time to sell index came in at 79 in December (from 64 in November), coming in above a neutral reading of 50, suggesting a reduced time to sell over the last 30 days (readings above 50). 58% of agents said the time to sell decreased and 42% said the time to sell was unchanged. We view the reduced time needed to sell as a positive indicator for future pricing trends.
Comments from real estate agents:
“Low inventory is driving multiple offers and buyers are willing to participate.”
“Generally positive economic news, coupled with still low interest rates and an extreme shortage of inventory has been driving activity in the market higher.”
Source: Credit Suisse
Monthly Survey of Real Estate Agents 42
As 2012 winds down, signs of a housing recovery and confidence toward the housing market exist at all levels. Recent national, state and local statistics reveal significant increases in prices and pending sales and dramatic declines in inventory.
The National Association of REALTORS® reported pending sales in the U.S. in October were at the highest level since March 2007. On a year-over-year basis, pending home sales have risen 18 consecutive months. Home prices also continued to rise in the U.S., rising 1.1 percent in the third quarter compared with the second quarter, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which relies on price information from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgages. Based on the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Indices, the average home prices in their 10- and 20-City Composites were each up in September compared with August and both Composites posted better annual returns in September than in August.
In California, pending home sales arose both from the previous month and year in October for the first time in seven months and equity sales (non-distressed sales) were at a four year high, due to a short supply of bank-owned properties. The median price in October was $341,370, up 23 percent from $277,450 in October 2011, marking the eighth consecutive month of annual price increases and the fourth consecutive month of double-digit annual gains. The year to year increase was the largest since May 2010. As you may recall, the 2010 increase was driven primarily by the government tax credits. Housing inventory of existing single family detached homes tightened in October to 3.1 months, down from 3.7 months in September and 5.5 months in October 2011. A six to seven month supply is considered normal.
Tri-City: Fremont, Newark, Union City
Locally, the total number of pending sales in the Tri-City area is more than 4 times the number of active listings. As of December 3, 2012, our numbers looked like this:
Based on the total number of closed sales for the last 12 months, our unsold inventory is half a month! The last time we saw inventories this low was December 2004. Home prices have also increased significantly. From October 2011 to October 2012, the median sales price of detached single family homes increased as follows:
Due to local market conditions, multiple offers are the norm. Our training and experience with this facet of the market have given us the ability to help our clients successfully navigate through the home selling and buying process. Here are just some of the negotiations we have encountered recently:
As you can see, there is a tremendous demand for homes in our area and as a result, we are experiencing an acute housing shortage. Those sellers who are taking advantage of the opportunity are reaping huge benefits. Your home is worth more than you can imagine. If you or someone you know is thinking of selling now or in the future, give me a call today.
If you have 1 hour of your free time, this is great forum for any investor to watch and learn. A few key points in the forum, including this great chart:
1.) Great discussion on who are the “buyers” in this market? We know that investors and first-time home buyers are driving the lower end of the market. For the mid level homes, a new first time mid-level buyers (Age 26-35, purchasing $400k and higher) are emerging to replace your traditional “move-up” buyers. Interesting arguments from both sides.
2.) Shadow inventory stats: 10.2% have some sort of distress. 89.8% Do not.
3.) 132.8M Total Housings Unit -> 78.8M Homes Owned -> 52.8M Mortagaged -> 12.0M w/negative equity
4.) Mark Hanson – Market Bear on Housing. A good gut check for all investors to think about.
The real estate market, like any other market, is a numbers game. Demand versus Supply. If one is greater than the other, it tips the balance and create a turn in the market. Did we turn? Let’s look at the numbers.
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